Sport and statistics go hand in hand. We all know people who, when called upon, can tell you: the score, the scorers, who got booked, sent off or injured in even the most obscure game from decades ago. Good statistics can be used to better understand the game. However, a crucial aspect of football fandom are the stories. The highs and lows of a club, the rise and fall of a manager, the bursting on to the scene and fall from grace of a player, the romance, the tragedy, the comedy.
While I remember the score and scorers from the first match I saw at Highbury (3-2 defeat to Newcastle), when I retell the story of my first trip the key scenes are away from the match. It's about my first experience of a Full-English in a greasy spoon cafe. It's about my mum's uncle (who hadn't lived in North London for some time) taking us into a pub full of Geordie fans. It's about seeing that view from The North Bank for the first time as a wide-eyed kid.
Football, and the way we view it, is always changing. In this digital age, professionalism, money and high stakes have created a culture where clubs look for that tiny edge over their competitors. It can be hard for fans to repsond to such changes but it's amazing how quickly some developments now seem par for the course. Take xG. At first, I'll admit, I had no proper understanding of what this stat was telling me. Instinctively, I knew an easy chance from a difficult one for strikers to finish, why did I need a stat to tell me that? Now, looking at how many high vs low xG opportunities are created by a team can reveal their dominance or their impotence in creating chances. All well and good for understanding the game further but how to quantify the stories football creates; the narrative. With xNarrative (or xN) of course.
First comes the idea. Then the scepticism. Then the implementation. Then the backlash. Then the acceptance. Be it: goal-line technology, VAR, automated off-side or xG, new developments in football often take time to become ingrained to the culture of football. xNarrative looks at several possible story lines surrounding a game to try and conclude which one is most worth our time and interest.
Narrative elements (all worth 0.0 - low, 0.1 - mid or 0.2 - high):
-Competitive rivals
-Local rivals
-Ex-player and/or manager
-Previous injustice
-Club beef (fans, players, managers)
A lot of this is gut instinct. But, that's the point! While there will be some debate over one good story versus another, most of the time it is pretty universal where the best stories come from. Two teams fighting for a title, battling relegation, two local rivals going at it, an ex-player proving his former club wrong, a manager looking to get revenge from an unfair decision in their last meeting, or the fans looking to give a certain player grief because, last time out, they felt he left a bit too much on their beloved star.
Evaluate the above aspects (0.0 - low, 0.1 - mid or 0.2 - high) and the one closest to 1 is the fixture with the highest xNarrative (xN) that weekend.
OPENING WEEKEND 2024/25: Chelsea vs Man City (xNarrative = 0.6)
In terms of narrative, there aren't any top class clashes in the Premier League's opening weekend. However, Chelsea hosting Man City is a clear front runner when it comes to xNarrative for one key aspect. The managers. The master and the apprentice. The seasoned winner and the rookie. Pep and Maresca.
While everyone knows what to expect from the machine that is Pep's Man City, Maresca's Chelsea is about the unknown. Even without Maresca Chelsea, with their cavalier approach to the transfer market, would be a difficult prospect to predict. With a rookie coach who, so far, has only cut his teeth with a successful promotion season with Leicester in the Championship, they could surprise and delight or (as I suspect) will flounder like a fish out of water.
Arsenal vs Wolves (xNarrative = 0.3)
A quiet start for Arsenal to this 24/25 season. Wolves will be a difficult side to beat because their coach, Gary O'Niel, has shown himself adept at putting competent sides together. However, having sold argubly their two best players, Kilman and Neto, Arsenal should have more than enough quality at home to secure an opening day victory.